you mention economics but
fail to ascribe much power to economic interests
especially a focus of economic interests
it could be that 'the secret ten', 'the brotherhood of the bell',
or just simply the 'forces of enlightened greed' would cooperate
long enough for there to arise a different kind of government...
pity us if so, for we are then really rather than virtually just
'the consumer class'
[just kedding of course but,
i wondered what would happed to Internet
when direct subsidy pulled out...
and....]
cheers!
bil
----------
From: owner-futurec
To: Multiple recipients of list FUTUREC
Subject: Re: no more government?
Date: Friday, December 29, 1995 6:44PM
>
> Hi,
>
> I find myself in a really strange situation that was supposed
to happen
> in the future sometime, but it's now: The government where I
live is
> closed for business. It's not officially out of business
forever, but
> that is a thought: What if it were?
Hmm. My first reaction was to say "There are some things that are
so far-fetched as to not be worth speculating over like a comet
hitting the earth or a complete shutdown of the US government."
Then I remembered the Larry Niven/Jerry Pournelle novel,
_Lucifer's Hammer_. . . about a comet hitting the earth.
I think an actual permanent shutdown of the US government (either
now or "in the future sometime" as Richard thinks will happen or
is working toward or something) has about as much of a chance of
happening as a comet hitting the earth. I.e., astronomical.
Radical change is certainly possible, but I can't envision a
human society free of centralized gov't. I think the
infrastructure of society has evolved to a point where it's
either not smart or profitable for some things to be run by the
private sector. Among those I would include things like
interstate highway construction, the military, the judicial
system, etc. (I would not include passenger train service, the
Internet and perhaps even education. Don't hold me to that last
one, though :)
So, having defined that as my basic point of view, let me
speculate...
First we have to define whether we're talking about a permanent
partial shutdown (which is all we have now) or a full shutdown.
I'm gonna assume Richard is talking about the latter.
No one's panicking now, because everyone knows this shutdown is
temporary, a political stare-down. Who's gonna blink first--Bill
or Newt? Assume however that it became apparent that the
government would never open back up. The stock market would
probably crash in a big way and the international value of the
dollar would nosedive. The default on *all* the US debt would
ruin a whole hell of a lot of international banks. The resulting
ripple through the economy would be more of a tidal wave than a
ripple probably. Inflation would probably go out of control, I
think. (I'm no economist.) Since the dollar would be worth squat,
hard goods (bread, clothing, shelter, land, etc.) would become
more valuable. There'd probably be mass looting until either
(a)people realized having a 30" TV doesn't do them any good when
the power company's turbines stop turning or (b)Some leftover US
Army Colonel with a couple of platoons of loyal soldiers and a
dozen M1 Abrams declares martial law in your hometown and cracks
down (the "Somalia Effect").
Now somewhere in here I'm assuming State and local governments
are still in operation, but frankly they're kind of lame duck
governments when compared to the Federal government. First, the
amount of state debt is nothing compared to the amount of Federal
debt. Defaulting on the entire several trillion dollars worth of
Federal debt would be enough to ruin this country economically
even if all the individual state governments remained solvent.
Second, the states have no military power. Well, except for the
National Gaurd, but there are very few Gaurdsmen who consider
themselves patriots to their home state above patriots to the
country. In any event, when the political and fiscal power
structures collapse, the people with the most power will be those
who can retain some control over America's vast military power.
So. I think what we would wind up with is a bevy of military
juntas aligning themselves with the remaining state and local
political structures and ruling the "country" (it's not really a
country at this point, save for being geographically defined by
oceans and Canadian and Mexican borders) through predominantly
dictatorial, military power. The dollar is valueless. Hunger and
disease increase dramatically. Industry either crumbles or comes
under military/political command. Society become even more
stratified by class. Services like health care become reserved
exclusively for those in power. I don't think I can even begin to
wonder what the economic repercussions to the world economy would
be--I'm not up on economics enough.
Quite a different vision from Richard's "Passports would just
become obsolete," eh?
>
> The guy in Bosnia who is about to come over here, to the US
(yes, the US
> govt. is closed for business), can't get a visa because the US
embassy in
> Zagreb is closed. If the govt. didn't reopen does this mean
that he
> could never come here? Or would there come a point when people
would
> just forget about the government and travel freely?
>
> What would happen then?
>
> Also, I cannot leave the US now, because I do not have a passport and I
> cannot get one with the govt. closed. Do I really have to have one to
> visit your country? Or could I just get a visa at your embassy in New
> York City and then tell your customs people, when I land in your country,
> that my govt. was out of business so I have no passport?
>
> What would happen then?
>
> What if I just say "No thanks" when my govt. reopens? Life is actually
> much simpler without it.
>
> What would happen then?
>
> me!
> ......................................................
> Richard Ginn - rlg1@cornell.edu - tel. +1 607-277-5058
> 510 Utica Street
> Ithaca, New York [USA 14850 - closed until further notice]
>
> http://crux3.cit.cornell.edu:80/~rlg1/
>
--
Greg Ritter
gritter@vcu.edu
ritter@urvax.urich.edu
http://www.urich.edu/~ritter